Raiders vs Jets — Week 10, 2023
The Raiders took over leading 16-12 with 1:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 16, Jets 12. Raiders won 16-12 — the drive turned it over.
Raiders ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 40, 1:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.4% for Raiders. Our model starts at 91.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:14) 71-J.Herron reported in as eligible. 8-J.Jacobs left guard to LV 45 for 5 yards (44-J.Sherwood, 3-J.Whitehead).
- (1:10) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to LV 45 for no gain (57-C.Mosley).
- (1:05) 4-A.O'Connell pass incomplete short right to 87-M.Mayer (11-J.Johnson).
- (1:00) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.14 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Outside run | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Inside run | -0.66 pts |
| Quick out | -0.74 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.79 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.85 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.97 pts |
| QB keep | -1.03 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| Play action | -2.16 pts |
| Curl route | -2.52 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.66 pts |
| End-around | -4.79 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.50 pts |
| Deep post | -7.97 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.50 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.