Dolphins vs Cowboys — Week 16, 2023
The Dolphins took over trailing 20-19 with 3:27 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 22, Cowboys 20. Dolphins won 22-20 — the drive scored.
Dolphins ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 3:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 49.8% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 47.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right end to MIA 31 for 6 yards (33-D.Clark). PENALTY on DAL-33-D.Clark, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 31.
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 11-C.Wilson to DAL 45 for 9 yards (21-S.Gilmore). DAL-21-S.Gilmore was injured during the play.
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill to DAL 40 for 5 yards (1-J.Kearse).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 10-T.Hill.
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 30-A.Ingold to DAL 33 for 7 yards (14-M.Bell).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill to DAL 23 for 10 yards (1-J.Kearse).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson right end to DAL 15 for 8 yards (28-M.Hooker, 21-S.Gilmore).
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson right guard to DAL 15 for no gain (33-D.Clark, 90-D.Lawrence).
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson up the middle to DAL 9 for 6 yards (90-D.Lawrence; 6-D.Wilson).
- (:58) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa kneels to DAL 10 for -1 yards.
- (:16) 1-T.Tagovailoa kneels to DAL 11 for -1 yards.
- (:02) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.29 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.29 pts |
| Curl route | +1.13 pts |
| QB keep | +1.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.09 pts |
| Quick out | +0.50 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.36 pts |
| Play action | +0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.05 pts |
| Outside run | -0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.43 pts |
| Deep post | -1.58 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.