Broncos vs Bills — Week 10, 2023

What really happened

Final: Broncos 24, Bills 22. Broncos won 24-22 — the drive scored.

Broncos ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 1:55 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 43.3% for Broncos. Our model starts at 46.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (1:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 25-S.Perine to DEN 43 for 18 yards (39-C.Lewis; 20-T.Rapp). BUF-39-C.Lewis was injured during the play. C.Lewis walks off.
2. (1:39) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton. Receiver and coverage at DEN 47.
3. (1:36) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles up the middle to DEN 47 for 4 yards (42-D.Williams).
4. (1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 25-S.Perine to BUF 45 for 8 yards (42-D.Williams).
5. (:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 82-A.Trautman to BUF 39 for 6 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
6. (:40) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at BUF 45 for -6 yards (sack split by 57-A.Epenesa and 20-T.Rapp).
7. (:29) 3-R.Wilson kneels to BUF 19 for -2 yards.
8. (:25) 3-R.Wilson kneels to BUF 20 for -1 yards.
9. (:24) 3-R.Wilson kneels to BUF 23 for -3 yards.
10. (:04) 16-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.96 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.99 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.