Lions vs Chargers — Week 10, 2023
The Lions took over tied at 38 with 3:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Lions 41, Chargers 38. Lions won 41-38 — the drive scored.
Lions ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 3:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 48.0% for Lions. Our model starts at 56.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:34) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 11-K.Raymond to LAC 34 for 41 yards (6-E.Kendricks; 3-D.James).
- (2:46) 5-D.Montgomery right end to LAC 35 for -1 yards (52-K.Mack).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 26-J.Gibbs to LAC 38 for -3 yards (9-K.Murray) [52-K.Mack].
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at LAC 26 for 12 yards (36-J.Taylor).
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta to LAC 20 for 6 yards (3-D.James, 33-D.Leonard).
- (1:40) 16-J.Goff kneels to LAC 21 for -1 yards.
- (:56) 16-J.Goff kneels to LAC 21 for no gain.
- (:32) 16-J.Goff kneels to LAC 22 for -1 yards.
- (:02) 36-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.55 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-5.23 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.55 pts |
| QB keep | +0.89 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.79 pts |
| Quick out | +0.72 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.59 pts |
| Curl route | +0.57 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.31 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.25 pts |
| Outside run | +0.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.19 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.80 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.36 pts |
| Play action | -1.95 pts |
| Spike it | -2.93 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.92 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.28 pts |
| Deep post | -5.23 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.