Raiders vs Chiefs — Week 16, 2023
The Raiders took over leading 20-14 with 2:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 20, Chiefs 14. Raiders won 20-14 — the drive time expired.
Raiders ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 2:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.4% for Raiders. Our model starts at 91.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:42) 35-Z.White up the middle to LV 31 for 6 yards (20-J.Reid).
- (2:35) 35-Z.White right end to KC 26 for 43 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
- (2:27) 35-Z.White right end to KC 11 for 15 yards (38-L.Sneed).
- (2:00) 4-A.O'Connell kneels to KC 12 for -1 yards.
- (1:19) 4-A.O'Connell kneels to KC 13 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 4-A.O'Connell kneels to KC 14 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.36 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Quick out | -0.87 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.91 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.95 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| Play action | -2.36 pts |
| Curl route | -2.75 pts |
| End-around | -4.84 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.85 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.72 pts |
| Deep post | -8.23 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.67 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.