Bengals vs Bills — Week 9, 2023
The Bengals took over leading 24-18 with 3:32 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 24, Bills 18. Bengals won 24-18 — the drive time expired.
Bengals ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:32 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.6% for Bengals. Our model starts at 88.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:32) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd to BUF 43 for 32 yards (20-T.Rapp).
- (2:41) 61-C.Ford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right tackle to BUF 41 for 2 yards (50-G.Rousseau; 97-J.Phillips). BUF-30-D.Jackson was injured during the play.
- (2:37) 28-J.Mixon left tackle to BUF 36 for 5 yards (29-J.Norman).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right end pushed ob at BUF 31 for 5 yards (7-Ta.Johnson).
- (1:53) 9-J.Burrow kneels to BUF 32 for -1 yards.
- (1:11) 9-J.Burrow kneels to BUF 33 for -1 yards.
- (:38) 9-J.Burrow kneels to BUF 34 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.63 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| Outside run | -0.26 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Inside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick out | -0.62 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.67 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.00 pts |
| QB keep | -1.02 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
| Curl route | -2.48 pts |
| Play action | -4.19 pts |
| End-around | -4.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -6.69 pts |
| Deep corner | -7.50 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.31 pts |
| Deep post | -9.95 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.