Falcons vs Jets — Week 13, 2023
The Falcons took over leading 13-8 with 2:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 47, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 13, Jets 8. Falcons won 13-8 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 2:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.7% for Falcons. Our model starts at 92.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle to 50 for 3 yards (56-Qu.Williams).
- (2:41) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle to 50 for no gain (95-Q.Williams, 70-Q.Jefferson).
- (2:34) 9-D.Ridder sacked at ATL 48 for -2 yards (70-Q.Jefferson).
- (2:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NYJ 7, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.29 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.63 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.39 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Quick out | -0.90 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.94 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.98 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.19 pts |
| QB keep | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| Play action | -2.41 pts |
| Curl route | -2.81 pts |
| End-around | -4.90 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.91 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.78 pts |
| Deep post | -8.32 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.73 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.63 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.