Browns vs Ravens — Week 10, 2023
The Browns took over trailing 31-30 with 4:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Browns 33, Ravens 31. Browns won 33-31 — the drive scored.
Browns ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 20, 4:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 43.0% for Browns. Our model starts at 44.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 85-D.Njoku to CLE 26 for 11 yards (14-K.Hamilton, 32-M.Williams).
- (4:22) (Shotgun) 34-J.Ford right guard to CLE 29 for 3 yards (6-P.Queen).
- (3:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 34-J.Ford to CLE 31 for 2 yards (6-P.Queen).
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 23 for -8 yards (99-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (99-O.Oweh) [99-O.Oweh], recovered by CLE-77-W.Teller at CLE 22.
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 2-A.Cooper to CLE 39 for 17 yards (23-R.Ya-Sin).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 34-J.Ford up the middle to CLE 45 for 6 yards (0-R.Smith).
- (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to BAL 39 for 16 yards (6-P.Queen). CLE-4-D.Watson was injured during the play.
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 34-J.Ford right guard to BAL 27 for 12 yards (0-R.Smith, 26-G.Stone).
- (1:13) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt right end to BAL 26 for 1 yard (98-T.Jones; 0-R.Smith).
- (1:07) 69-L.Watson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt right end to BAL 21 for 5 yards (0-R.Smith).
- (:23) 4-D.Watson kneels to BAL 22 for -1 yards.
- (:03) 7-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.81 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.92 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.81 pts |
| QB keep | +0.67 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.56 pts |
| Curl route | +0.51 pts |
| Quick out | +0.14 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.02 pts |
| Play action | -0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.25 pts |
| Outside run | -0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.71 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -1.04 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.84 pts |
| Deep post | -2.10 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.