Bengals vs Jaguars — Week 13, 2023
The Bengals took over tied at 28 with 4:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 31, Jaguars 31. Tied 31-31 — the drive scored.
Bengals ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 38, 4:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 50.9% for Bengals. Our model starts at 59.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CIN 45 for 7 yards (26-A.Johnson).
- (4:53) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to CIN 47 for 2 yards (33-D.Lloyd, 52-D.Hamilton).
- (4:09) 6-J.Browning scrambles up the middle ran ob at JAX 32 for 21 yards (5-A.Cisco).
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to JAX 32 for 5 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
- (3:17) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning sacked at JAX 44 for -7 yards (41-J.Allen).
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 83-T.Boyd to JAX 36 for 8 yards (26-A.Johnson).
- (2:33) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.94 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.25 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.94 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.23 pts |
| QB keep | +0.06 pts |
| Quick out | -0.03 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.15 pts |
| Curl route | -0.19 pts |
| Play action | -0.25 pts |
| Outside run | -0.35 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.67 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.89 pts |
| Inside run | -1.08 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.08 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.50 pts |
| Spike it | -2.85 pts |
| Deep post | -3.25 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.