Saints vs Vikings — Week 10, 2023

What really happened

Final: Saints 19, Vikings 27. Vikings won 27-19 — the drive turnover.

Saints ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 17, 4:54 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.2% for Saints. Our model starts at 10.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (4:54) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to NO 19 for 2 yards (5-M.Blackmon).
2. (4:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 41-A.Kamara (45-T.Dye). Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to NO 20 for 1 yard (45-T.Dye).
3. (4:14) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Olave to NO 37 for 17 yards (5-M.Blackmon).
4. (3:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass incomplete deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed. NO-22-R.Shaheed was injured during the play.
5. (3:40) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short middle to 5-L.Bowden to NO 44 for 12 yards (40-I.Pace).
6. (3:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 12-C.Olave INTERCEPTED by 5-M.Blackmon [44-J.Metellus] at MIN 18. 5-M.Blackmon to MIN 18 for no gain (12-C.Olave).

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.27 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.10 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.