Falcons vs Commanders — Week 6, 2023
The Falcons took over trailing 24-16 with 3:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 42, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 16, Commanders 24. Commanders won 24-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Falcons ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 42, 3:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.9% for Falcons. Our model starts at 11.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle to ATL 44 for 2 yards (93-J.Allen).
- (3:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass incomplete deep left to 81-J.Smith.
- (3:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder sacked at ATL 44 for 0 yards (95-C.Toohill).
- (2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass incomplete deep middle to 8-K.Pitts (36-D.Johnson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.21 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.25 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.21 pts |
| Curl route | +0.95 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.61 pts |
| Play action | +0.58 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.45 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.43 pts |
| QB keep | +0.34 pts |
| Quick out | +0.24 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.19 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -1.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.16 pts |
| Spike it | -1.25 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.