Vikings vs Panthers — Week 4, 2023
The Vikings took over leading 21-13 with 0:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 21, Panthers 13. Vikings won 21-13 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Vikings ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 23, 0:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 99.1% for Vikings. Our model starts at 98.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:57) 2-A.Mattison up the middle to MIN 26 for 3 yards (97-Y.Gross-Matos).
- (:53) 2-A.Mattison left guard to MIN 27 for 1 yard (99-S.Tuttle).
- (:48) 2-A.Mattison right guard to MIN 30 for 3 yards (99-S.Tuttle).
- (:02) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.49 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.76 pts |
| Inside run | -0.84 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.94 pts |
| Quick out | -1.28 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.29 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.30 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.72 pts |
| QB keep | -1.73 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.83 pts |
| Play action | -3.14 pts |
| Curl route | -3.61 pts |
| End-around | -5.63 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.65 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.61 pts |
| Deep post | -9.49 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.61 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.