Seahawks vs Eagles — Week 15, 2023
The Seahawks took over trailing 17-13 with 1:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 8, 1 timeout in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 20, Eagles 17. Seahawks won 20-17 — the drive scored.
Seahawks ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 8, 1:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.1% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 18.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short middle to 87-N.Fant.
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf to SEA 26 for 18 yards (24-J.Bradberry; 32-R.Blankenship).
- (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short left to 87-N.Fant ran ob at SEA 31 for 5 yards.
- (1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf to SEA 37 for 6 yards (24-J.Bradberry). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short right to 16-T.Lockett.
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short right to 16-T.Lockett (41-N.Morrow).
- (:56) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf to PHI 29 for 34 yards (24-J.Bradberry; 21-S.Brown).
- (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Lockett.
- (:36) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short middle to 16-T.Lockett.
- (:33) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.49 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.21 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.86 pts |
| Curl route | -0.94 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.04 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.18 pts |
| Quick out | -1.22 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.32 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.40 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.42 pts |
| Play action | -1.48 pts |
| Spike it | -1.80 pts |
| Inside run | -2.02 pts |
| Outside run | -2.07 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.21 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.