49ers vs Vikings — Week 7, 2023
The 49ers took over trailing 22-17 with 1:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 17, Vikings 22. Vikings won 22-17 — the drive turnover.
49ers ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 40, 1:11 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.3% for 49ers. Our model starts at 16.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short right to 85-G.Kittle (22-H.Smith).
- (1:07) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 3-R.McCloud to SF 49 for 9 yards (44-J.Metellus; 22-H.Smith).
- (:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 3-R.McCloud to MIN 40 for 11 yards (23-A.Booth; 22-H.Smith).
- (:35) (No Huddle) 13-B.Purdy spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:34) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left intended for 3-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum at MIN 22. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 22 for no gain (3-R.McCloud).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.77 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.66 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.77 pts |
| Deep post | +1.67 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.29 pts |
| QB keep | +1.21 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.15 pts |
| Play action | +0.88 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.63 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.62 pts |
| Quick out | +0.57 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.49 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -1.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.41 pts |
| Spike it | -1.66 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.