Broncos vs Vikings — Week 11, 2023
The Broncos took over trailing 20-15 with 3:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 21, Vikings 20. Broncos won 21-20 — the drive scored.
Broncos ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.8% for Broncos. Our model starts at 19.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:17) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left end pushed ob at DEN 25 for no gain (98-D.Wonnum).
- (3:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 17-L.Humphrey.
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 25-S.Perine right guard to DEN 32 for 7 yards (91-P.Jones).
- (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 45 for 13 yards (40-I.Pace). Penalty on MIN-40-I.Pace, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 25-S.Perine to MIN 45 for 10 yards (44-J.Metellus).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 25-S.Perine to MIN 28 for 17 yards (44-J.Metellus, 24-C.Bynum).
- (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 25-S.Perine to MIN 22 for 6 yards (40-I.Pace). FUMBLES (40-I.Pace), touched at MIN 21, ball out of bounds at MIN 21.
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left.
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 25-S.Perine pushed ob at MIN 15 for 7 yards (29-J.Williams).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-D.Hunter].
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 33-J.Williams rushes left end. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.34 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.89 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.34 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.98 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.94 pts |
| QB keep | +0.82 pts |
| Deep post | +0.75 pts |
| Play action | +0.57 pts |
| Quick out | +0.40 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.10 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.76 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.41 pts |
| Spike it | -1.89 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.