Jaguars vs Browns — Week 14, 2023
The Jaguars took over trailing 28-21 with 4:24 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 27, Browns 31. Browns won 31-27 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Jaguars ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 20, 4:24 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.7% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 12.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:24) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 17-E.Engram pushed ob at JAX 31 for 11 yards (37-Da.Bell).
- (4:20) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 17-E.Engram (29-C.Mitchell).
- (4:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 0-C.Ridley.
- (4:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles right end to JAX 38 for 7 yards (54-O.Okoronkwo).
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 7-Z.Jones (33-R.Hickman) [94-D.Tomlinson].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.77 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.30 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.77 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.51 pts |
| Deep post | +0.44 pts |
| QB keep | +0.43 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.02 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.95 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.06 pts |
| Spike it | -1.30 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.