Commanders vs Seahawks — Week 10, 2023
The Commanders took over trailing 26-19 with 3:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 26, Seahawks 29. Seahawks won 29-26 — the drive scored.
Commanders ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 29, 3:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.2% for Commanders. Our model starts at 12.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:40) 8-B.Robinson left tackle to WAS 30 for 1 yard (90-Ja.Reed).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 82-L.Thomas to WAS 37 for 7 yards (22-T.Brown).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 48 for 11 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete deep right.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Crowder.
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 24-A.Gibson to SEA 43 for 9 yards (33-J.Adams).
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to SEA 35 for 8 yards (22-T.Brown).
- (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short middle to 1-J.Dotson (54-B.Wagner).
- (1:08) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete deep middle to 3-B.Pringle [52-D.Taylor].
- (1:02) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep middle to 2-D.Brown for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.14 pts |
| Curl route | +0.95 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.62 pts |
| Play action | +0.58 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.40 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.38 pts |
| QB keep | +0.34 pts |
| Quick out | +0.24 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Outside run | -0.82 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.20 pts |
| Spike it | -1.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.