Jets vs Bills — Week 1, 2023
The Jets took over tied at 13 with 4:51 left, 1st & 10 at the Bills 27, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Jets 16, Bills 16. Tied 16-16 — the drive scored.
Jets ball, even score — any score wins it. In Bills territory, 4:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 68.8% for Jets. Our model starts at 71.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:51) 20-Bre.Hall right guard to BUF 21 for 6 yards (20-T.Rapp; 21-J.Poyer).
- (4:08) 20-Bre.Hall right guard to BUF 18 for 3 yards (91-E.Oliver, 20-T.Rapp).
- (3:20) 33-D.Cook up the middle to BUF 18 for no gain (90-S.Lawson, 27-T.White).
- (2:50) 2-Z.Wilson up the middle to BUF 16 for 2 yards (90-S.Lawson; 43-T.Bernard).
- (2:06) 33-D.Cook right end to BUF 19 for -3 yards (91-E.Oliver, 58-M.Milano). BUF-27-T.White was injured during the play.
- (2:00) 33-D.Cook up the middle to BUF 18 for 1 yard (43-T.Bernard).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter right tackle to BUF 12 for 6 yards (58-M.Milano, 43-T.Bernard).
- (1:51) 9-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. BUF-23-M.Hyde was injured during the play.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.86 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-5.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.86 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.07 pts |
| Quick out | -0.17 pts |
| QB keep | -0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.27 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.72 pts |
| Play action | -0.74 pts |
| Curl route | -0.86 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Spike it | -2.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.90 pts |
| Field goal | -3.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.46 pts |
| Deep post | -5.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.