Colts vs Patriots — Week 10, 2023
The Colts took over leading 10-6 with 4:16 left, 1st & 10 at their own 5, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Colts 10, Patriots 6. Colts won 10-6 — the drive turned it over.
Colts ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 5, 4:16 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 68.3% for Colts. Our model starts at 79.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:16) 28-J.Taylor right guard to IND 6 for 1 yard (33-A.Jennings).
- (3:34) 28-J.Taylor right guard to IND 14 for 8 yards (3-M.Wilson).
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 1-J.Downs to IND 38 for 28 yards (2-J.Mills).
- (2:38) 28-J.Taylor left guard to IND 35 for -3 yards (90-C.Barmore).
- (2:35) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to IND 37 for 2 yards (92-D.Godchaux; 23-K.Dugger).
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to IND 46 for 9 yards (26-S.Wade).
- (2:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to NE 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.85 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.85 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.98 pts |
| Outside run | -1.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.19 pts |
| Inside run | -1.25 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.39 pts |
| Quick out | -1.65 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.69 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.73 pts |
| QB keep | -1.95 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.24 pts |
| Play action | -3.21 pts |
| Curl route | -3.55 pts |
| End-around | -4.95 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.80 pts |
| Deep post | -7.32 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.43 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.