49ers vs Browns — Week 6, 2023
The 49ers took over leading 17-16 with 3:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 17, Browns 19. Browns won 19-17 — the drive turned it over.
49ers ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 25, 3:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 66.1% for 49ers. Our model starts at 64.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:21) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short right [6-J.Owusu-Koramoah]. PENALTY on SF-13-B.Purdy, Intentional Grounding, 11 yards, enforced at SF 25.
- (3:16) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at SF 24 for 10 yards (23-M.Emerson).
- (3:12) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short right [54-O.Okoronkwo].
- (3:05) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 60 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-T.Pepper. 16-J.Darden to CLE 26 for 10 yards (38-S.Jean-Charles).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.36 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.36 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.85 pts |
| Quick out | +0.56 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.54 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.44 pts |
| QB keep | +0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.20 pts |
| Curl route | +0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.16 pts |
| Outside run | -0.18 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.80 pts |
| Inside run | -0.96 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.63 pts |
| Play action | -2.01 pts |
| End-around | -2.95 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.11 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.14 pts |
| Deep post | -5.72 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.40 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.