Eagles vs Commanders — Week 4, 2023
The Eagles took over tied at 24 with 3:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 43, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 31, Commanders 31. Tied 31-31 — the drive scored.
Eagles ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 43, 3:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 61.4% for Eagles. Our model starts at 64.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles left tackle to PHI 45 for 2 yards (52-J.Davis).
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 13-O.Zaccheaus.
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 13-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 44 for 11 yards (22-D.Forrest).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at WAS 34 for 10 yards (13-E.Forbes).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 0-D.Swift right tackle to WAS 28 for 6 yards (90-M.Sweat).
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-11-A.Brown, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.42 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-6.31 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.42 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.83 pts |
| QB keep | +0.73 pts |
| Quick out | +0.61 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.60 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.49 pts |
| Outside run | +0.27 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.25 pts |
| Curl route | +0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.13 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.25 pts |
| Play action | -2.37 pts |
| Spike it | -2.71 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.56 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.01 pts |
| Deep post | -6.31 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.