Chiefs vs Lions — Week 1, 2023
The Chiefs took over trailing 21-20 with 2:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 45, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 20, Lions 21. Lions won 21-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Chiefs ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 45, 2:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 58.3% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 58.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:30) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 19-K.Toney.
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 24-S.Moore (2-C.Gardner-Johnson).
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 4-R.Rice (2-C.Gardner-Johnson).
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 84-Ju.Watson [79-J.Cominsky].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.55 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.90 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB keep | +1.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.42 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.13 pts |
| Curl route | +0.95 pts |
| Quick out | +0.57 pts |
| Outside run | +0.54 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.43 pts |
| Play action | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| Inside run | -0.48 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.05 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.03 pts |
| Deep post | -2.63 pts |
| Spike it | -2.90 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.