Titans vs Dolphins — Week 14, 2023
The Titans took over trailing 27-21 with 2:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 36, 1 timeout in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Titans 28, Dolphins 27. Titans won 28-27 — the drive scored.
Titans ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 36, 2:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 19.6% for Titans. Our model starts at 13.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins ran ob at MIA 28 for 36 yards (4-K.Kohou).
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo pushed ob at MIA 12 for 16 yards (29-B.Jones).
- (2:00) 32-T.Spears right end to MIA 6 for 6 yards (94-C.Wilkins).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.33 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.44 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.33 pts |
| Deep post | +1.20 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.95 pts |
| QB keep | +0.91 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.86 pts |
| Play action | +0.61 pts |
| Quick out | +0.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.38 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.37 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.34 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -1.08 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.19 pts |
| Spike it | -1.44 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.