Falcons vs Titans — Week 8, 2023
The Falcons took over trailing 28-23 with 2:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 23, Titans 28. Titans won 28-23 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Falcons ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 13, 2:19 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 19.2% for Falcons. Our model starts at 13.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 8-K.Pitts (96-D.Autry).
- (2:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 15-V.Jefferson to ATL 19 for 6 yards (58-H.Landry).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles up the middle to ATL 22 for 3 yards (58-H.Landry).
- (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short middle to 15-V.Jefferson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.23 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.80 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.23 pts |
| Curl route | +0.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.15 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.43 pts |
| Play action | -0.48 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.49 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.54 pts |
| QB keep | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.69 pts |
| Quick out | -0.81 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.84 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.98 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.05 pts |
| Spike it | -1.42 pts |
| Outside run | -1.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.66 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.80 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.