Browns vs Colts — Week 7, 2023
The Browns took over trailing 38-33 with 2:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 1 timeout in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Browns 39, Colts 38. Browns won 39-38 — the drive scored.
Browns ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 20, 2:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.8% for Browns. Our model starts at 14.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass incomplete short middle to 85-D.Njoku (99-D.Buckner).
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Cooper.
- (2:27) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass deep right to 8-E.Moore pushed ob at 50 for 30 yards (39-D.Baker) [99-D.Buckner].
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 20-P.Strong left guard to IND 37 for 13 yards (51-K.Paye, 32-J.Blackmon).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 20-P.Strong left guard to IND 36 for 1 yard (51-K.Paye).
- (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass short middle to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to IND 19 for 17 yards (25-R.Thomas).
- (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-P.Strong left tackle to IND 22 for -3 yards (52-S.Ebukam).
- (:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass short right to 2-A.Cooper to IND 13 for 9 yards (39-D.Baker).
- (:33) 66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 10-P.Walker pass incomplete short left to 85-D.Njoku (25-R.Thomas).
- (:28) 10-P.Walker pass incomplete short middle to 85-D.Njoku.
- (:25) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass incomplete short right to 8-E.Moore [44-Z.Franklin].
- (:19) 66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.30 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.30 pts |
| Deep post | +1.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.93 pts |
| QB keep | +0.93 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.86 pts |
| Play action | +0.59 pts |
| Quick out | +0.39 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.30 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.28 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.17 pts |
| Spike it | -1.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.