Packers vs Giants — Week 14, 2023
The Packers took over trailing 21-16 with 3:34 left, 1st & 10 at the Giants 36, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Packers 22, Giants 24. Giants won 24-22 — the drive scored.
Packers ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. In Giants territory, 3:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.8% for Packers. Our model starts at 34.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon right guard to NYG 28 for 8 yards (41-M.McFadden).
- (3:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon right guard to NYG 27 for 1 yard (91-As.Robinson; 29-X.McKinney).
- (2:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to NYG 22 for 5 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux; 29-X.McKinney).
- (2:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs to NYG 16 for 6 yards (25-D.Banks).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs (22-A.Jackson).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 11-J.Reed pushed ob at NYG 8 for 8 yards (25-D.Banks).
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love scrambles up the middle to NYG 6 for 2 yards (97-D.Lawrence; 91-As.Robinson).
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 18-M.Heath (27-J.Pinnock) [51-A.Ojulari]. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (1:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 18-M.Heath for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 11-J.Reed rushes left end. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.59 pts), and the weakest was Field goal (-5.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.59 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.30 pts |
| Play action | +1.13 pts |
| QB keep | +0.82 pts |
| Deep post | +0.77 pts |
| Quick out | +0.60 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.48 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.15 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.70 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.82 pts |
| Inside run | -1.41 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.74 pts |
| Spike it | -2.67 pts |
| Field goal | -5.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.