Jets vs Giants — Week 8, 2023
The Jets took over trailing 10-7 with 2:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Jets 10, Giants 10. Tied 10-10 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Jets ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 2:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.8% for Jets. Our model starts at 28.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 20-Bre.Hall pushed ob at NYJ 24 for -1 yards (58-B.Okereke).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 17-G.Wilson (28-C.Flott).
- (2:27) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson scrambles left end ran ob at NYJ 41 for 17 yards (29-X.McKinney).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 31 for -10 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 10-A.Lazard to NYJ 41 for 10 yards (22-A.Jackson).
- (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 10-A.Lazard (22-A.Jackson). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (1:33) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 26 for -15 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.81 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.46 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.42 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.39 pts |
| QB keep | +1.25 pts |
| Play action | +0.86 pts |
| Quick out | +0.66 pts |
| Deep post | +0.63 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.54 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.06 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Spike it | -2.46 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.