Steelers vs Patriots — Week 14, 2023
The Steelers took over trailing 21-18 with 2:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 1 timeout in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 18, Patriots 21. Patriots won 21-18 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Steelers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 27, 2:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.6% for Steelers. Our model starts at 30.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth.
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 22-N.Harris to PIT 41 for 14 yards (8-J.Bentley; 48-Ja.Tavai).
- (2:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short right to 18-D.Johnson.
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at PIT 49 for 8 yards (29-J.Jackson).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep right to 14-G.Pickens.
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep left to 18-D.Johnson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.79 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.79 pts |
| QB keep | +1.56 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.41 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.40 pts |
| Play action | +0.84 pts |
| Quick out | +0.66 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.54 pts |
| Deep post | +0.52 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.11 pts |
| Outside run | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Spike it | -2.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.