Patriots vs Steelers — Week 14, 2023
The Patriots took over leading 21-18 with 4:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 21, Steelers 18. Patriots won 21-18 — the drive turned it over.
Patriots ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 14, 4:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 72.4% for Patriots. Our model starts at 72.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:58) 15-E.Elliott left guard to NE 18 for 4 yards (97-C.Heyward; 99-L.Ogunjobi).
- (4:17) 15-E.Elliott right guard to NE 22 for 4 yards (99-L.Ogunjobi; 40-B.Martinez).
- (3:32) (Shotgun) 15-E.Elliott up the middle to NE 23 for 1 yard (97-C.Heyward).
- (2:51) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to PIT 27, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.65 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.43 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.65 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.82 pts |
| Outside run | -1.12 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.15 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.16 pts |
| Quick out | -1.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.42 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.47 pts |
| QB keep | -1.48 pts |
| Inside run | -1.53 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -1.99 pts |
| Curl route | -2.12 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.89 pts |
| End-around | -4.43 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.50 pts |
| Deep post | -5.85 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.09 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.43 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.