Jets vs Broncos — Week 5, 2023
The Jets took over leading 24-21 with 4:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Jets 31, Broncos 21. Jets won 31-21 — the drive turnover.
Jets ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 74.6% for Jets. Our model starts at 74.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:44) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 89-J.Ruckert to NYJ 27 for 2 yards (31-J.Simmons).
- (4:02) (Shotgun) 20-Bre.Hall left tackle to NYJ 31 for 4 yards (22-K.Jackson; 27-D.Mathis).
- (3:56) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 83-T.Conklin to DEN 32 for 37 yards (31-J.Simmons; 49-A.Singleton).
- (3:33) 20-Bre.Hall up the middle to DEN 30 for 2 yards (92-J.Harris, 49-A.Singleton).
- (3:03) 20-Bre.Hall left guard to DEN 27 for 3 yards (29-J.McMillian; 92-J.Harris).
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right intended for 17-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 2-P.Surtain at DEN 3. 2-P.Surtain to DEN 3 for no gain (17-G.Wilson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.49 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.49 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.18 pts |
| Outside run | -0.30 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.40 pts |
| Quick out | -0.41 pts |
| QB keep | -0.47 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.62 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.78 pts |
| Inside run | -0.89 pts |
| Play action | -1.17 pts |
| Curl route | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.37 pts |
| End-around | -3.72 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.98 pts |
| Deep post | -5.54 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.69 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.