Eagles vs Jets — Week 6, 2023
The Eagles took over leading 14-12 with 4:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 14, Jets 20. Jets won 20-14 — the drive turnover.
Eagles ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 20, 4:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 69.6% for Eagles. Our model starts at 67.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 0-D.Swift pushed ob at PHI 22 for 2 yards (30-M.Carter).
- (4:37) (Shotgun) 0-D.Swift up the middle to PHI 31 for 9 yards (22-T.Adams, 94-S.Thomas).
- (3:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 0-D.Swift to PHI 34 for 3 yards (57-C.Mosley).
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 0-D.Swift up the middle to PHI 34 for no gain (91-J.Franklin-Myers).
- (2:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 45 for 11 yards (56-Qu.Williams).
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell left guard to PHI 46 for 1 yard (95-Q.Williams; 56-Qu.Williams).
- (2:20) 0-D.Swift left end to PHI 46 for no gain (56-Qu.Williams).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Adams at NYJ 47. 22-T.Adams to PHI 8 for 45 yards (69-L.Dickerson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.48 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.43 pts |
| QB keep | +0.14 pts |
| Outside run | +0.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.07 pts |
| Quick out | -0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.32 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Curl route | -0.72 pts |
| Play action | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.15 pts |
| End-around | -3.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.65 pts |
| Deep post | -4.93 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.83 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.