Chargers vs Vikings — Week 3, 2023
The Chargers took over leading 28-24 with 2:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 2, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 28, Vikings 24. Chargers won 28-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Chargers ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 2, 2:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 72.9% for Chargers. Our model starts at 83.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen to LAC 15 for 13 yards (7-B.Murphy).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 25-J.Kelley left end to LAC 17 for 2 yards (58-J.Hicks).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 25-J.Kelley up the middle to LAC 14 for -3 yards (99-D.Hunter).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen to LAC 24 for 10 yards (7-B.Murphy).
- (1:51) 25-J.Kelley up the middle to LAC 24 for no gain (90-J.Bullard). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.88 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.88 pts |
| Outside run | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.92 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.21 pts |
| Quick out | -1.47 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.51 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.52 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.62 pts |
| QB keep | -1.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.15 pts |
| Curl route | -3.71 pts |
| End-around | -5.02 pts |
| Play action | -5.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -7.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -8.16 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.92 pts |
| Deep post | -10.06 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.