Falcons vs Buccaneers — Week 7, 2023
The Falcons took over leading 13-10 with 3:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 16, Buccaneers 13. Falcons won 16-13 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 15, 3:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 73.3% for Falcons. Our model starts at 75.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:41) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle to ATL 17 for 2 yards (9-J.Tryon, 96-G.Gaines).
- (2:59) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle to ATL 20 for 3 yards (54-L.David).
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson left end to ATL 24 for 4 yards (9-J.Tryon, 27-Z.McCollum).
- (2:42) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to TB 33, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.83 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.83 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.50 pts |
| Outside run | -0.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.84 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.07 pts |
| Quick out | -1.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.17 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.20 pts |
| QB keep | -1.20 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.29 pts |
| Inside run | -1.37 pts |
| Play action | -1.71 pts |
| Curl route | -1.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.72 pts |
| End-around | -4.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.36 pts |
| Deep post | -5.79 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.09 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.