Ravens vs Colts — Week 3, 2023
The Ravens took over leading 17-16 with 4:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 19, Colts 19. Tied 19-19 — the drive turned it over.
Ravens ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 21, 4:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 71.3% for Ravens. Our model starts at 60.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:48) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end to BAL 19 for -2 yards (32-J.Blackmon).
- (4:11) 33-M.Gordon right tackle to BAL 25 for 6 yards (99-D.Buckner).
- (3:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles left end to BAL 39 for 14 yards (45-E.Speed). PENALTY on IND-23-K.Moore, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 39.
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left tackle to BAL 47 for 3 yards (94-Ty.Lewis).
- (2:44) 77-D.Faalele reported in as eligible. 33-M.Gordon left guard to BAL 49 for 2 yards (45-E.Speed, 90-G.Stewart).
- (2:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 45 for -4 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
- (2:28) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to IND 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by BAL-5-J.Armour-Davis.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.76 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.76 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.59 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.16 pts |
| QB keep | -0.01 pts |
| Quick out | -0.08 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.20 pts |
| Curl route | -0.29 pts |
| Play action | -0.34 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.44 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.70 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.92 pts |
| Inside run | -1.15 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.78 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.19 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.63 pts |
| End-around | -3.02 pts |
| Deep post | -3.43 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.