Colts vs Buccaneers — Week 12, 2023
The Colts took over leading 27-20 with 4:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Colts 27, Buccaneers 20. Colts won 27-20 — the drive turned it over.
Colts ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 4:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.9% for Colts. Our model starts at 91.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:05) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete deep left to 1-J.Downs.
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND 12 for -3 yards (94-C.Kancey).
- (3:17) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 24 for 12 yards (31-A.Winfield).
- (2:32) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to TB 35, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-43-T.Denbow.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.33 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.64 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -0.99 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.06 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.30 pts |
| QB keep | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.65 pts |
| Play action | -2.50 pts |
| Curl route | -2.91 pts |
| End-around | -4.92 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.98 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.84 pts |
| Deep post | -8.36 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.75 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.64 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.