Chargers vs Cowboys — Week 6, 2023
The Chargers took over trailing 20-17 with 2:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 17, Cowboys 20. Cowboys won 20-17 — the drive turnover.
Chargers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 2:19 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.6% for Chargers. Our model starts at 27.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to LAC 33 for 3 yards (90-D.Lawrence).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 25 for -8 yards (11-M.Parsons).
- (1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 1-Q.Johnston INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Gilmore [33-D.Clark] at LAC 33. 21-S.Gilmore to LAC 33 for no gain (1-Q.Johnston).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.91 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.91 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.49 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.43 pts |
| QB keep | +1.29 pts |
| Play action | +0.95 pts |
| Deep post | +0.90 pts |
| Quick out | +0.70 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.59 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.22 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -1.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Spike it | -2.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.