Patriots vs Commanders — Week 9, 2023
The Patriots took over trailing 20-17 with 2:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 17, Commanders 20. Commanders won 20-17 — the drive turnover.
Patriots ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 9, 2:07 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.8% for Patriots. Our model starts at 24.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 24 for 15 yards (51-D.Mayo).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 85-H.Henry pushed ob at NE 32 for 8 yards (29-K.Fuller).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-J.Smith-Schuster to NE 45 for 13 yards (29-K.Fuller).
- (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short left to 85-H.Henry (35-P.Butler).
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 88-M.Gesicki.
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson to WAS 49 for 6 yards (13-E.Forbes).
- (1:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-J.Smith-Schuster to WAS 43 for 6 yards (13-E.Forbes).
- (:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones scrambles right end ran ob at WAS 41 for 2 yards (31-K.Curl).
- (:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 7-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Martin at WAS 33. 20-J.Martin to WAS 33 for no gain (7-J.Smith-Schuster).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.76 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.47 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.76 pts |
| Curl route | -0.93 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.01 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.09 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.34 pts |
| Quick out | -1.43 pts |
| QB keep | -1.45 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.53 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -1.56 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.64 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.70 pts |
| Inside run | -2.21 pts |
| Outside run | -2.22 pts |
| Spike it | -2.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.47 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.