Packers vs Raiders — Week 5, 2023

What really happened

Final: Packers 13, Raiders 17. Raiders won 17-13 — the drive turnover.

Packers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 42, 1:56 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.8% for Packers. Our model starts at 27.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 88-L.Musgrave pushed ob at GB 49 for 7 yards (24-M.Peters).
2. (1:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 27-P.Taylor pushed ob at LV 49 for 2 yards (24-M.Peters). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 27-P.Taylor pushed ob at LV 48 for 3 yards (24-M.Peters).
3. (1:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 88-L.Musgrave to LV 40 for 8 yards (37-T.Hall; 41-R.Spillane).
4. (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 27-P.Taylor.
5. (1:22) (Shotgun) 27-P.Taylor up the middle to LV 35 for 5 yards (91-B.Nichols).
6. (:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 87-R.Doubs.
7. (:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 88-L.Musgrave.
8. (:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Robertson at LV -6. Touchback.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.09 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.39 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.