Patriots vs Dolphins — Week 2, 2023

What really happened

Final: Patriots 17, Dolphins 24. Dolphins won 24-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.

Patriots ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 45, 2:14 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.7% for Patriots. Our model starts at 11.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (2:14) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne to NE 48 for 3 yards (55-J.Baker).
2. (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne to MIA 39 for 13 yards (33-E.Apple, 8-J.Holland).
3. (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at MIA 47 for -8 yards (2-B.Chubb).
4. (1:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short right to 85-H.Henry (8-J.Holland).
5. (1:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki to MIA 33 for 14 yards (4-K.Kohou).
6. (1:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki to MIA 34 for -1 yards [2-B.Chubb]. Lateral to 69-C.Strange to MIA 29 for 5 yards (8-J.Holland; 43-A.Van Ginkel). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki to MIA 34 for -1 yards [2-B.Chubb]. Lateral to 69-C.Strange to MIA 30 for 4 yards (8-J.Holland; 43-A.Van Ginkel).

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.20 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.