Chargers vs Packers — Week 11, 2023
The Chargers took over trailing 23-20 with 2:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 20, Packers 23. Packers won 23-20 — the drive turned it over.
Chargers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 2:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.8% for Chargers. Our model starts at 30.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 1-Q.Johnston.
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 30-A.Ekeler.
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 15 for -10 yards (52-R.Gary).
- (2:00) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to GB 40, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-K.Nixon to GB 41 for 1 yard (33-D.Leonard).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.85 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.57 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.85 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.46 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.44 pts |
| QB keep | +1.29 pts |
| Play action | +0.86 pts |
| Quick out | +0.68 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.56 pts |
| Deep post | +0.54 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.00 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| Spike it | -2.57 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.