Bills vs Patriots — Week 7, 2023
The Bills took over trailing 22-17 with 4:56 left, 1st & 10 at the Patriots 29, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Bills 25, Patriots 29. Patriots won 29-25 — the drive scored.
Bills ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. In Patriots territory, 4:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 33.6% for Bills. Our model starts at 38.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to NE 16 for 13 yards (27-M.Bryant).
- (4:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle to NE 9 for 7 yards (33-A.Jennings).
- (3:35) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook up the middle to NE 8 for 1 yard (48-Ja.Tavai, 8-J.Bentley).
- (2:55) 76-D.Edwards reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right [13-J.Jones].
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid to NE 4 for 4 yards (29-J.Jackson).
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 28-L.Murray to NE 1 for 3 yards (23-K.Dugger). Penalty on NE-13-J.Jones, Illegal Contact, declined.
- (2:07) 17-J.Allen up the middle to NE 1 for no gain (8-J.Bentley).
- (2:00) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.09 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.77 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.09 pts |
| Curl route | +1.05 pts |
| QB keep | +0.99 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.94 pts |
| Quick out | +0.41 pts |
| Play action | +0.34 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| Outside run | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -0.82 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.90 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.20 pts |
| Deep post | -1.58 pts |
| Field goal | -1.80 pts |
| Spike it | -2.77 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.