Patriots vs Eagles — Week 1, 2023
The Patriots took over trailing 25-20 with 3:28 left, 1st & 10 at the Eagles 41, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 20, Eagles 25. Eagles won 25-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Patriots ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. In Eagles territory, 3:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 33.5% for Patriots. Our model starts at 32.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 15-E.Elliott left guard to PHI 36 for 5 yards (90-J.Davis; 91-F.Cox). PHI-91-F.Cox was injured during the play.
- (2:59) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at PHI 43 for -7 yards (sack split by 90-J.Davis and 94-J.Sweat).
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 84-K.Bourne (2-D.Slay) [93-M.Williams].
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short right to 85-H.Henry.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.61 pts), and the weakest was Field goal (-9.77 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.61 pts |
| QB keep | +1.51 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.33 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.30 pts |
| Play action | +0.70 pts |
| Quick out | +0.59 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.47 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.13 pts |
| Deep post | +0.09 pts |
| Outside run | -0.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.26 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -1.04 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.34 pts |
| Spike it | -2.63 pts |
| Field goal | -9.77 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.