Seahawks vs Cowboys — Week 13, 2023
The Seahawks took over trailing 38-35 with 4:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 35, Cowboys 41. Cowboys won 41-35 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Seahawks ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 4:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.4% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 32.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 43 for 18 yards (26-D.Bland).
- (4:05) (Shotgun) 31-D.Dallas right tackle to SEA 49 for 6 yards (95-J.Hankins).
- (3:24) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 31-D.Dallas (92-D.Armstrong).
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba (2-J.Lewis).
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.99 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.99 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.93 pts |
| QB keep | +0.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.82 pts |
| Quick out | +0.30 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.19 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.09 pts |
| Outside run | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Deep post | -0.69 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.76 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.90 pts |
| Inside run | -1.13 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| Spike it | -2.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.