Texans vs Jaguars — Week 12, 2023
The Texans took over trailing 24-21 with 3:01 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 1 timeout in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Texans 21, Jaguars 24. Jaguars won 24-21 — the drive missed field goal.
Texans ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 11, 3:01 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.4% for Texans. Our model starts at 27.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles left end to HOU 27 for 16 yards (23-F.Oluokun). PENALTY on JAX-37-T.Herndon, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 27.
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right to 9-B.Jordan (99-J.Ledbetter).
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 26-D.Singletary to HOU 38 for 6 yards (33-D.Lloyd).
- (2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 9-B.Jordan pushed ob at HOU 47 for 9 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 32 for -15 yards (41-J.Allen).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 12-N.Collins to HOU 49 for 17 yards (37-T.Herndon).
- (1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 2-R.Woods to JAX 37 for 14 yards (37-T.Herndon).
- (1:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at JAX 46 for -9 yards (sack split by 41-J.Allen and 44-T.Walker).
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to JAX 39 for 7 yards (23-F.Oluokun).
- (:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 26-D.Singletary [45-K.Chaisson].
- (:34) 16-M.Ammendola 58 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.62 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.47 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.62 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.70 pts |
| Deep post | -0.94 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.12 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.14 pts |
| Play action | -1.27 pts |
| Quick out | -1.49 pts |
| QB keep | -1.50 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.52 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.59 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.67 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.70 pts |
| Outside run | -2.16 pts |
| Inside run | -2.18 pts |
| Spike it | -2.39 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.47 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.