Lions vs Saints — Week 13, 2023
The Lions took over leading 33-28 with 2:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Lions 33, Saints 28. Lions won 33-28 — the drive time expired.
Lions ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 40, 2:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 86.6% for Lions. Our model starts at 91.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:56) 5-D.Montgomery right guard to DET 43 for 3 yards (93-N.Shepherd; 56-D.Davis).
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown (29-P.Adebo).
- (2:48) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to NO 47 for 10 yards (31-J.Howden).
- (2:02) 5-D.Montgomery left guard to NO 45 for 2 yards (93-N.Shepherd).
- (1:57) 5-D.Montgomery left tackle to NO 46 for -1 yards (92-T.Kpassagnon). NO-97-M.Roach was injured during the play.
- (1:54) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 8-J.Reynolds to NO 34 for 12 yards (1-A.Taylor) [31-J.Howden].
- (1:13) 16-J.Goff kneels to NO 35 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 16-J.Goff kneels to NO 36 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.40 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.43 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.40 pts |
| Outside run | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Quick out | -0.83 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.88 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.93 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.09 pts |
| QB keep | -1.12 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.27 pts |
| Curl route | -2.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.76 pts |
| End-around | -4.77 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.61 pts |
| Deep post | -8.08 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.56 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.43 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.