Titans vs Falcons — Week 8, 2023
The Titans took over leading 28-23 with 3:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Titans 28, Falcons 23. Titans won 28-23 — the drive turned it over.
Titans ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 27, 3:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.6% for Titans. Our model starts at 86.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:43) 22-D.Henry right end pushed ob at TEN 34 for 7 yards (3-J.Bates).
- (3:35) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard to TEN 40 for 6 yards (48-B.Dupree).
- (2:50) 22-D.Henry right tackle to TEN 44 for 4 yards (27-R.Grant).
- (2:42) 22-D.Henry right tackle to TEN 46 for 2 yards (90-D.Onyemata).
- (2:36) 8-W.Levis sacked at TEN 36 for -10 yards (17-A.Ebiketie).
- (2:32) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to ATL 13, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-11-C.Moore.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.87 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.60 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.21 pts |
| Outside run | -0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.66 pts |
| Quick out | -0.70 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.76 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.89 pts |
| QB keep | -0.92 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -1.95 pts |
| Curl route | -2.28 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.39 pts |
| End-around | -4.45 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.18 pts |
| Deep post | -7.41 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.07 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.87 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.