Colts vs Browns — Week 7, 2023
The Colts took over leading 38-33 with 3:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Colts 38, Browns 39. Browns won 39-38 — the drive turned it over.
Colts ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 32, 3:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 86.3% for Colts. Our model starts at 88.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:39) (Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss left guard to IND 32 for no gain (6-J.Owusu-Koramoah).
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard to IND 32 for no gain (95-M.Garrett).
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 6-I.McKenzie right end to IND 34 for 7 yards (22-G.Delpit).
- (2:45) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 20 for 7 yards (45-E.Speed).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.57 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.02 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.57 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.26 pts |
| Outside run | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Quick out | -0.74 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.79 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.86 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.95 pts |
| QB keep | -0.98 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -2.04 pts |
| Curl route | -2.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.49 pts |
| End-around | -4.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.29 pts |
| Deep post | -7.59 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.20 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.02 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.