Bears vs Saints — Week 9, 2023
The Bears took over trailing 24-17 with 3:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 2, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Bears 17, Saints 24. Saints won 24-17 — the drive turned it over.
Bears ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. Backed up at their own 2, 3:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 9.3% for Bears. Our model starts at 10.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:41) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 85-C.Kmet to CHI 8 for 6 yards (56-D.Davis).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete deep left to 2-D.Moore.
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left to 13-T.Scott (90-B.Bresee).
- (2:57) 16-T.Gill punts 49 yards to NO 43, Center-48-P.Scales. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 49 for 6 yards (57-J.Sanborn). PENALTY on CHI-12-V.Jones, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NO 49.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-0.63 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.49 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.76 pts |
| Quick out | -0.80 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.82 pts |
| QB keep | -0.83 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.87 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.93 pts |
| Deep post | -0.94 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.02 pts |
| Curl route | -1.11 pts |
| Spike it | -1.17 pts |
| Play action | -1.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.36 pts |
| Inside run | -1.38 pts |
| Outside run | -1.42 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.44 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.