Jets vs Falcons — Week 13, 2023
The Jets took over trailing 13-8 with 1:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 7, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Jets 8, Falcons 13. Falcons won 13-8 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Jets ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 7, 1:53 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.4% for Jets. Our model starts at 12.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass incomplete deep right to 83-T.Conklin.
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass incomplete deep left to 83-T.Conklin.
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass deep right to 82-X.Gipson pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 25 yards (3-J.Bates).
- (1:34) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass incomplete deep middle to 82-X.Gipson.
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass incomplete short left to 20-Bre.Hall.
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian sacked at NYJ 30 for -7 yards (17-A.Ebiketie). FUMBLES (17-A.Ebiketie) [17-A.Ebiketie], recovered by NYJ-67-C.Warren at NYJ 30.
- (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass incomplete short left [48-B.Dupree]. Penalty on NYJ-66-J.Tippmann, Offensive Holding, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-0.67 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.82 pts |
| Curl route | -0.85 pts |
| Quick out | -0.87 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.89 pts |
| QB keep | -0.92 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.92 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.94 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.02 pts |
| Deep post | -1.08 pts |
| Spike it | -1.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.49 pts |
| Play action | -1.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.56 pts |
| Inside run | -1.63 pts |
| Outside run | -1.69 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.