Jets vs Raiders — Week 10, 2023

What really happened

Final: Jets 12, Raiders 16. Raiders won 16-12 — the drive time expired.

Jets ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 20, 0:53 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.6% for Jets. Our model starts at 15.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (:53) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete short middle.
2. (:49) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 83-T.Conklin to NYJ 29 for 9 yards (37-T.Hall, 69-A.Butler).
3. (:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle to 83-T.Conklin to LV 44 for 27 yards (1-M.Epps) [98-M.Crosby].
4. (:13) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 82-X.Gipson.
5. (:05) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep left.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.72 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.57 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.